题图Photo: 123RF 照片：123RF
The economy slipped into a recession at the end of last year.
去年年底，美国经济陷入衰退。
Stats NZ says gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in the three months ended December.
新西兰统计局表示，在截至12月的三个月中，国内生产总值下降了0.1%。
The economy shrank 0.3 percent in the previous quarter fulfilling the technical definition of a recession
经济在上一季度萎缩了0.3%，符合经济衰退的技术定义
And real gross national disposable income fell 1.4 per cent.
实际国民可支配总收入下降了1.4%。
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Manufacturing, wholesale trade,retail trade and accommodation, and the transport, postal, and warehousing sectors all took a hammering in the quarter, according to Stats NZ data.
根据新西兰统计局的数据，制造业、批发贸易、零售贸易和住宿业以及运输、邮政和仓储业在本季度都受到了重创。
Despite the grim quarterly news, GDP rose 0.6 percent over the year ended December 2023.
尽管季度消息严峻，但截至 2023 年 12 月的一年中，GDP 增长了 0.6%。
There’s no question the economy is struggling. But new data due at 10.45am today will confirm whether we entered recession at the end of 2023.
毫无疑问，经济正在苦苦挣扎。但将于今天上午 10 点 45 分公布的新数据将证实我们是否在 2023 年底进入衰退。
The bulk of local economists have a near-miss forecast for top-line recession. ANZ and BNZ have forecast a 0.1 per cent expansion for the December quarter.
大多数当地经济学家对顶线衰退的预测几乎不及预期。澳新银行（ANZ）和BNZ预计12月季度将增长0.1%。
Westpac and Kiwibank have a flat (0 per cent) result pencilled in. The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has also forecast a flat result.
西太平洋银行（Westpac）和新西兰银行（Kiwibank）的业绩持平（0%）。新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）也预测结果持平。
Meanwhile, ASB is taking a gloomier view, picking a contraction of 0.2 per cent for the quarter.
与此同时，ASB则持悲观态度，预计本季度将收缩0.2%。
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Either way, if you feel like we’re already in a recession, you’re probably not wrong.
无论哪种方式，如果你觉得我们已经处于衰退之中，你可能没有错。
We’re almost certainly in a deep per capita recession. There will also be numbers today showing how much the economy shrank per person.
几乎可以肯定，我们正处于人均深度衰退之中。今天还将有数据显示人均经济萎缩了多少。
“On a per capita basis we are already in a recessionary environment,” said Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.
“按人均计算，我们已经处于衰退环境中，”Kiwibank首席经济学家Jarrod Kerr表示。
“In the September quarter alone, GDP per capita contracted 0.9 per cent. And a painful 3 per cent decline over the year. ” Kerr said.
“仅在9月季度，人均GDP就收缩了0.9%。一年来下降了3%，令人痛苦。“克尔说。
With high net migration flattering the topline result, ASB is picking that per capita GDP fell by as much as 1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter.
由于高净移民率使收入增长，ASB认为第四季度人均GDP下降了1.1%。
“At this point, the slice of the economic pie available for each Kiwi is only about 0.6 per cent bigger than it was in late 2019,” said ASB economist Nathaniel Keall.
ASB经济学家纳撒尼尔·基尔（Nathaniel Keall）表示：“在这一点上，每个新西兰人可用的经济蛋糕仅比2019年底大0.6%左右。
“By the time per capita GDP begins growing again, it could be nearly 1.5 per cent smaller by our reckoning.”
“到人均GDP再次开始增长时，根据我们的估计，它可能会减少近1.5%。
The headwinds facing the New Zealand economy weren’t unique, Keall said.
Keall说，新西兰经济面临的不利因素并非独一无二。
“Flatlining GDP growth and deteriorating GDP per capita are features of many Western economies outside the US,” he noted.
“GDP增长趋于平缓和人均GDP恶化是美国以外的许多西方经济体的特征，”他指出。
来源：RNZ / NZHerald
分类： 澳纽资讯
(即时多来源) 新西兰英语新闻 New Zealand English News
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